Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned by National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life

By National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Analysis of Global Change Assessments

International switch exams tell determination makers in regards to the clinical underpinnings of a variety of environmental matters, equivalent to weather switch, stratospheric ozone depletion, and lack of biodiversity. Dozens of checks were carried out so far by way of quite a few U.S. and overseas teams, lots of them influencing public regulations, expertise improvement, and study instructions. This file analyzes strengths and weaknesses of 8 earlier exams to notify destiny efforts. universal parts of powerful tests contain powerful management, huge engagement with and affected events, a clear science-policy interface, and good outlined verbal exchange innovations. The record identifies eleven crucial parts of powerful exams and recommends that destiny exams contain choice aid instruments that utilize details on the local and native point the place judgements are made.

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Chapter 3 reviews the scholarly literature on assessment processes to identify the key challenges in designing an effective assessment. It also draws some conclusions from the literature on what design choices increase the likelihood for an effective assessment. Based on the general framework provided in Chapter 2 and the key challenges identified in Chapter 3, the committee analyzes a selection of assessments in Chapter 4 and identifies the strengths and weaknesses in their approaches. Drawing from the literature review in Chapter 3, the analysis in Chapter 4, and Chapter 5 concludes with the committee’s overall findings and recommendations.

1. Assessments have the potential to establish the basic significance or importance of an issue and elevate it onto the decision-making agenda. If an issue is not yet on the agenda of decision makers, which have with the authority and resources to address it, an assessment that assembles an review of evidence can make the case that it is serious or urgent enough to deserve their attention. The stratospheric ozone trends panel (WMO 1990a) and the Villach report (WMO 1986b), for example, exerted a decisive influence over the policy debate by showing the seriousness of ozone depletion and climate change, respectively.

Salience concerns an assessment’s ability to communicate with the users whose decisions it seeks to inform. Achieving salience depends on such ­matters as capturing users’ attention, addressing matters that are relevant to their concerns, communicating in terms they can understand, and presenting any recommendations in operational terms to the audience that can use them, at the time it needs them. Although these are rather academic concepts, they have attained widespread use both among scholars and in practical debates about assessment programs.

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